Dark Clouds

As everyone returns to Kinshasa it has an air of normality. But conversations around the coffee pot in the office are far from normal. People bring stories of nightly fighting in provincial towns during the election and post electoral period; of secret police picking up people, apparently randomly, who are never seen again; of bodies being washed up on the banks of the Congo river. Those who have stayed in Kinshasa during the election and Christmas period talk of sudden and apparently arbitrary lock-downs in certain areas, and an atmosphere of distrust and anger. The Government closed down the official French broadcaster Radio France International for three weeks because of its allegedly biased coverage of the elections.

We are still waiting for the election results for the National Assembly, which are supposed to be announced very soon. Although the electoral commission, in an attempt to legitimise itself, has invited American experts to observe and assist in the counting process, most people think it is too little, far too late. If opposition candidates don’t get a good showing, then the violence may flare up again. The EU has threatened to withdraw all its aid, which is a lot, because of the possibility that it will be officially found to have violated democratic principles in the conduct of its elections.

To add to the prevailing atmosphere of gloom and doom, we have just heard that the DRC is at the top of the World Hunger Index – i.e. has the most malnourished people, skinniest babies, and worst prospects for babies in the world. For a country with highly fertile soil, generous rainfall and massive mineral wealth this is a truly damning indictment.

To add salt to the wound, late last year the Government decided to introduce VAT. In one fell swoop, this would add 16% to the price of EVERYTHING. This was not the way it was supposed to be. The IMF, which was behind the idea, had proposed a carefully phased system, by which, in the first phase, VAT would replace import duties, and would only apply to manufacturers, thereby having a minimum impact on inflation. Instead, it seems that in a decision taken in a matter of a few hours, the whole plan was abandoned (“imagine the riches that this tax will bring”) and Government decided apply VAT to all goods and services in one single phase. Within a few weeks the tax collectors had been trained, and it was all go.

And sure enough: come 1^st January all the shops and restaurants added VAT to their prices. The result was confusion combined with money-grubbing: the usual Congolese mixture, some people will say.

But how are the poor going to cope with it? In a hurried climb-down, five days later the Government announced that VAT wouldn’t be applied to flour, fuel and bread. But it’s unlikely that this will be enough, and people talk about this being the tipping point at which the acquiescence of the poor will evaporate into riots.