State of play

So, we’re back to more or less normal working hours and on the face of it things have settled down. So here’s the state of play:

For election observers

As usual the Southern African Development Community (SADC) representing all Southern African countries, which had a huge observer mission, pronounced themselves very satisfied with the results – just as they had done after Mugabe’s totally stolen election four years ago.

Not so the Carter Centre which documented many absurdities such as the results of 3000 polling stations “lost” of which 2000 were in the opposition stronghold of Kinshasa, while in a Kabila stronghold a polling station recorded 99.46% turnout with 100% of the votes going to Kabila. In some counting stations ballots were strewn all over the floor and mixed up. Others were left outside, and official result sheets got wet and had to be hung on washing lines to dry.

The Catholic church has joined the Carter Centre in stating that the results were not credible. The EU is announcing its findings today or tomorrow.

For Presidents

That’s right – PresidentS, because Kabila was pronounced the winner, but Tshisekedi announced that it is he, Tshisekedi, who is President, not Kabila. He's just announced his Prime Minister - Kamerhe, another opposition candidate for Presidency.

Kabila has conceded that certain irregularities took place, but claims that they do not invalidate the results. His position will surely be ratified by the Supreme Court on Thursday.

Tshisekedi has refused to go to court to challenge the results, as he claims that it is stuffed with Kabila judges – which is true. (The Supreme Court had 8 judges until recently, but Kabila appointed another 18 recently, thus ensuring a favourable verdict to any challenge.) Meanwhile, while continuing in his fiction that he is President, he is holed up in his house in Kinshasa. The police use “law and order” issues to prevent him driving around, so he is virtually under house arrest.

For the Electoral Commission

The Chairman has stated, with a sweep of the hand (to quote press reports) that the Carter Centre (a) doesn’t know what it is doing, (b) didn’t have enough observers to make a fair assessment, and (c) is a tool of the opposition. So, he says, the Commission has nothing to be ashamed of.

But its work is far from over. If counting was a problem for 11 presidential candidates, one hates to think of the chaos that reigns in counting stations at the moment as it count the votes for the 18,000 MP candidates.

For the police

The police are congratulating themselves for handling the situation so well, and for that they thank the many years of training funded by the EU and the British Government. This has helped them contain protests extremely effectively, with relatively small loss of life. They have changed their previous style of going into riot situations with guns, and shooting wildly: now they are unarmed, but have state-of-the-art riot protection kit, tear gas and water cannon to do the job “humanely”.

Their tactics have been to throw cordons around all areas of unrest, effectively preventing any movement. In this way they have prevent demonstrations and anti-government (dare one say pro-democracy?) protests from taking place.

For the man in the street

The protests in the days following the election results took the form of burning tyres, blocking roads and establishing a general state of mayhem. They were led by disaffected young men, who often enjoyed a bit of looting too. Almost everyone in the office witnessed some form of trouble. But the police were quick to respond with teargas and similar tactics and activities were suppressed quickly. Since they are underpaid, once they had stopped the public from looting they took their share too.

But many have the scars, physical and emotional, of rough handling by the police. Our driver’s family had tear gas canisters shot right into their house which is fairly near a main road and his children were seriously affected by the gas.

For shopkeepers

Though some of the big shops opened almost every day, it’s a different story for the little ones. Most of them remain closed as the spectre of past pillaging looms large in people’s memories. The windows of clothing shops have only naked mannequins, and others are locked behind impenetrable steel sheets. For the tiny shops in the suburbs, which can’t afford proper protection, every day brings new terrors.

For political observers

While change offers the prospect of progress, it is also a risky thing, so most foreign political observers –for example embassy types – are happy with the result because it represents stability. They feel that they have come to know Kabila and are making a little progress with him. They were worried about Tshisekedi’s wild statements which show no respect for the rule of law. It’s a case of “the devil you know” syndrome which is unfortunately supported by so many historical examples.

For governance advisers

There were moments when we began to welcome the prospect of change which a Tshisekedi government would bring. We thought of the many incompetencies of the previous government – indeed its apparent lack of any real will to make a difference. How good it would be to help put in place effective policies and management. Wishful thinking, of course.

But no matter who the president is, there is a lot of waiting before we have a government The system is that the Cabinet has to be elected by the National Assembly, and it will surely take a long time for the MP’s election results to be finalised. What is more, it is by no means certain that there will be a pro-Kabila majority, so there’ll be a lot of horse trading to be done. Which takes time. Indeed, it might not be until March before there’s a final decision. Meanwhile do we twiddle our thumbs?

For the expatriate community, and especially their security advisers

Was all that security fuss unnecessary? What’s going to happen in the next few days? What’s going to happen to all our tins of baked beans? Our 1500 litres of water? Are we to pretend that we’re still on the brink of disaster? Maybe: the papers are full of stories about electoral malfeasance and we have been promised daily peaceful protests by the opposition which can turn nasty at any time.

If you ask the Congolese they will tell you that it’s not over yet. If you ask me – no don’t, I might be wrong.